Android mobile operating system Google's red-hot is expected to challenge the Symbian OS used by Nokia for global market supremacy by 2014, according to a new Gartner forecast. The research firm predicts Android-based devices will account for 17.6 percent of all smartphones sold this year and 29.6 percent of all shipments in 2014.
IDC likewise expects Android to make global smartphone gains -- growing from a 16.3 percent market share in 2010 to 24.6 percent in 2014. "Phone vendors have been drawn to Android because it allows them to present their own approach to what a smartphone experience can be," said IDC Senior Research Analyst Ramon Llamas. "In addition, users have quickly warmed to Android, comparing it to [Apple's] iOS due to its ease of use and a growing mobile-application storefront."
Rivals Respond
Gartner analysts attribute Android's dramatic rise to marketing and support from communications service providers. "We believe that market share in the OS space will consolidate around a few key OS providers that have the most support from CSPs and developers and strong brand awareness with consumer and enterprise customers," said Roberta Cozza, a principal research analyst at Gartner.
Gartner forecasts that Apple's share of the smartphone market will fall from 15.4 percent this year to 14.9 percent in 2014. Analysts widely see Apple's decision to relax the guidelines for iOS application developers it announced last April as an attempt to mitigate the growing popularity of Android among software designers.
"Developers reacted passionately when these restrictions were announced, and no doubt their reaction was a major factor in Apple's decision to rescind them," said Al Hilwa, director of application software development at IDC. "Mobile-platform choices are rapidly increasing, and developers are famous for shifting their allegiances if they are unloved."
Though Gartner expects Nokia's Symbian OS to continue to lead the smartphone market this year with 40.1 percent of all shipments, the company's hold on the market is expected to slip to 30.2 percent by the end of 2014, putting Android within striking distance. The bad news for Nokia is that Android's gains are likely to be at the high end of the smartphone market -- where handset margins and average selling prices are substantially higher.
This helps explain why Nokia decided last week to replace CEO Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo with Stephen Elop, currently the head of Microsoft's business division. Moreover, the world's leading cell-phone vendor announced Monday that Vice President Anssi Vanjoki, who heads Nokia's mobile-solutions unit, also will be leaving the company.
Microsoft's Smartphone Prospects
Despite Microsoft's rollout of Windows Phone 7, Gartner expects the software giant's share of the global mobile OS market will decline from 4.7 percent this year to 3.9 percent in 2014. However, IDC analysts believe there is still ample room for multiple mobile OS players to grow.
IDC predicts Microsoft's share of the global smartphone market will grow from 6.8 percent in 2010 to 9.8 percent in 2014. "Windows Mobile is expected to regain some of the share it has lost over the past two years," the research firm's analysts noted.
Gartner forecasts that Research In Motion's BlackBerry OS will slide from a global market share of 17.5 percent this year to just 11.7 percent in 2014. By contrast, IDC estimates a 17.9 percent share for RIM in 2010 and 17.3 percent in 2014.
No one smartphone OS will dominate mobile phones in the way Microsoft has with Windows on personal computers, noted IDC Senior Research Analyst Kevin Restivo. "Shorter replacement cycles and an ample feature phone-to-smartphone upgrade opportunity means the smartphone OS market will remain fragmented but healthy for the foreseeable future," Restivo said.
IDC likewise expects Android to make global smartphone gains -- growing from a 16.3 percent market share in 2010 to 24.6 percent in 2014. "Phone vendors have been drawn to Android because it allows them to present their own approach to what a smartphone experience can be," said IDC Senior Research Analyst Ramon Llamas. "In addition, users have quickly warmed to Android, comparing it to [Apple's] iOS due to its ease of use and a growing mobile-application storefront."
Rivals Respond
Gartner analysts attribute Android's dramatic rise to marketing and support from communications service providers. "We believe that market share in the OS space will consolidate around a few key OS providers that have the most support from CSPs and developers and strong brand awareness with consumer and enterprise customers," said Roberta Cozza, a principal research analyst at Gartner.
Gartner forecasts that Apple's share of the smartphone market will fall from 15.4 percent this year to 14.9 percent in 2014. Analysts widely see Apple's decision to relax the guidelines for iOS application developers it announced last April as an attempt to mitigate the growing popularity of Android among software designers.
"Developers reacted passionately when these restrictions were announced, and no doubt their reaction was a major factor in Apple's decision to rescind them," said Al Hilwa, director of application software development at IDC. "Mobile-platform choices are rapidly increasing, and developers are famous for shifting their allegiances if they are unloved."
Though Gartner expects Nokia's Symbian OS to continue to lead the smartphone market this year with 40.1 percent of all shipments, the company's hold on the market is expected to slip to 30.2 percent by the end of 2014, putting Android within striking distance. The bad news for Nokia is that Android's gains are likely to be at the high end of the smartphone market -- where handset margins and average selling prices are substantially higher.
This helps explain why Nokia decided last week to replace CEO Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo with Stephen Elop, currently the head of Microsoft's business division. Moreover, the world's leading cell-phone vendor announced Monday that Vice President Anssi Vanjoki, who heads Nokia's mobile-solutions unit, also will be leaving the company.
Microsoft's Smartphone Prospects
Despite Microsoft's rollout of Windows Phone 7, Gartner expects the software giant's share of the global mobile OS market will decline from 4.7 percent this year to 3.9 percent in 2014. However, IDC analysts believe there is still ample room for multiple mobile OS players to grow.
IDC predicts Microsoft's share of the global smartphone market will grow from 6.8 percent in 2010 to 9.8 percent in 2014. "Windows Mobile is expected to regain some of the share it has lost over the past two years," the research firm's analysts noted.
Gartner forecasts that Research In Motion's BlackBerry OS will slide from a global market share of 17.5 percent this year to just 11.7 percent in 2014. By contrast, IDC estimates a 17.9 percent share for RIM in 2010 and 17.3 percent in 2014.
No one smartphone OS will dominate mobile phones in the way Microsoft has with Windows on personal computers, noted IDC Senior Research Analyst Kevin Restivo. "Shorter replacement cycles and an ample feature phone-to-smartphone upgrade opportunity means the smartphone OS market will remain fragmented but healthy for the foreseeable future," Restivo said.
